As of this writing, (Nov.4, 2020, 1:52 pm) the US presidential election is undetermined. Votes are still being counted in several key states. Biden clings to a slim lead in the Electoral College, while Trump blusters about having already won and warns about fraud due to the high number of mail-in votes, which seem to tilt towards Biden. Important races in the US Senate, House and many state Governorships also hang in the balance. The world holds its breath.
Lessons can be learned from this.
First, we should never put any real faith in pre-election polling. As in 2016, it seemed as though the Democratic candidates would achieve a solid victory. This year, Democrats were musing out loud about a "blue wave" that has, obviously, not materialized. Despite the advances in analytics, polling doesn't give anything close to an accurate reading in how an election will actually turn out. Polling only finds out what contacted persons MIGHT do on election day, and does not prevent people from lying, playing deliberate games of misinformation, or changing their minds. Do not put any faith in polls.
Second, we must now acknowledge that the "Trump" phenomenon is real. It is no longer just a "one-off." Four years ago, many pundits tried to explain his win as a sign of disaffection and anger in the political system. It's obviously more than that. Those two conditions still exist, but "Trumpism", more of an attitude than a coherent political philosophy, is a genuine entity that thrives now because its supporters have become emboldened by electoral success. Even if Trump ends up losing the Electoral College, he can point to the popular vote and claim that he has widespread support in all states. This is an undeniable fact. And, because of that, the grievances and values of Trump's supporters must be listened to. They are not merely a bunch of "cranks" or racists, although those things are part of the Trump package.
Third, we must continue to put faith in democratic institutions. The vote is being counted slowly because the Elections Commission is dedicated to getting the result right. There is no evidence of widespread fraud as Trump claims. When the final results are counted, we will know who the next President will be, not because Trump claims he has won. Democracy is still alive in the United States, at least for the present.
Fourth, as much as we know that Trump has millions of supporters, we also know that there are millions of Americans who reject the attitudes and values of the Trumpists. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote four years ago, and it seems that Biden will do so again. While that does not get the Presidency for the Democrats, it does show the world that decent people live in the United States, and these people have no time for racism, xenophobia, homophobia, mysogeny, ultra capitalism, and anti-intellectualism. We must applaud and support these Americans as they struggle for their ideals and beliefs.
The results will not be known for a while yet. Keep calm. Keep the faith. America is either in labour, giving birth to a new identity. It is a difficult labour. Or it could be the republic's death throes. Time will tell.
A remarkably calm analysis of the situation south of the border, despite the gut-wrenching reality that almost half the country voted for a full-blown lunatic. I may have to stop watching CNN just to keep my blood pressure in check! Great analysis, John.
ReplyDeleteA remarkably calm analysis of the situation south of the border, despite the gut-wrenching reality that almost half the country voted for a full-blown lunatic. I may have to stop watching CNN just to keep my blood pressure in check! Great analysis, John.
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