Sunday, September 16, 2018

THE POLITICS OF CHAOS

Doug Ford has been Premier of Ontario for less than four months, but in that time, he has succeeded in turning the political climate in the province from the usual turbulent back and forth of partisan politics into an absolute maelstrom of uncertainty and brinksmanship. His plan to gut the City Council of Toronto has ruffled more than a few feathers, has inspired a court petition which won in Ontario Superior Court, only to be overturned by Ford's use of Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the so-called "Notwithstanding Clause".

Since then, Ontario and indeed all of Canada has been plunged into a type of chaos not seen in recent years. Ford's heavy-handed move has forced a re-examination of the powers set out in various sections of the Constitution. Many former leaders, both liberal and conservative have weighed in and stated that the use of Section 33 was inappropriate, although completely legal.

Now, there is mounting pressure on Justin Trudeau to invoke the seldom used Sections 55 and 56 of the Constitution Act to disallow any provincial legislation Ford may pass regarding the size and format of the Toronto City Council. Others are crying foul, that Trudeau has no such power, or would be unwise to use it. In point of fact, the power to disallow provincial legislation is real and has been used several times in Canada's history. Most famously, the governments of R.B. Bennett and Mackenzie King invoked the power to disallow several attempts by William Aberhardt, the premier of Alberta, to reform the banking and other economic institutions during the 1930's. Since then, most political thinkers have come to the conclusion that the power of disallowance is dormant: perhaps that is true, but it not extinct. It has not been used since. It is still there in black and white, ready to be dusted off to plunge us even further into political chaos.

Whether Ford or Trudeau go ahead with their political "nuclear" options is impossible to predict at this time. Whether they even should attempt these things is a discussion for water coolers, coffee shops, bars and dinner tables. The big question should be this: why are they doing this in the first place?

The answer lies in the time tested Conservative practice of "creating a crisis." I say it's a Conservative practice because I honestly cannot think of an equivalent Liberal or NDP practice. Creating a Crisis is used by Conservatives to try to get the citizenry angry at the established ways of doing things in order to be given tacit permission to change the ways of doing things in their favour. In this case, Ford's personal vendetta against Toronto City Council is motivating him to act this way. Don't like City Council? Declare it to be "dysfunctional" and then throw a huge wrench into the scheduled electoral process, throwing everything and everyone into confusion, and stand back and say that he is the only one to fix "the problem." The only flaw in that reasoning is this: most people know that there was no problem in the first place and the confusion is only flowing from the Ford government.

There is a precedent. In the 1990's in Ontario, the Conservative government was led by a failed teacher named Mike Harris. Whatever the reasons for him leaving the profession, he developed a severe animus towards it. When he achieved power, he decided to try to break teacher unions, radically change the way teachers did their jobs, curtail the power of school boards, and, generally, throw everything into a boiling soup of controversy. His Ministers of Education, John Snobelin and Dave Johnson, knew nothing about teaching, but certainly knew how to turn public opinion against teachers and launched a series of bills and regulations against the profession. What followed was the "political protest" of teachers in the late 90's. The government eventually won the battle, but the antagonism and bad feelings THEY created have lasted to this day. And, ultimately, teachers won the war. Harris and his successor, Ernie Eves, were turfed out of power and a prolonged period of relative peace returned under Liberal governments.

Now, the Conservatives are back and they are loaded for bear. They have, in their short time in office, thrown everything into chaos. They are picking fights. They are creating chaos. They are making it up as they go along, with no clear mandate from the electorate to do these things.  They despise the federal Liberals simply because the Liberals have been governing largely successfully with a relatively progressive agenda and approach. The provincial Tories hate this and want the same fate to befall the Trudeau Liberals as befell the Kathleen Wynne Liberals . Make no mistake, this whole sorry incident is a veiled challenge to Trudeau to intervene and deploy his own version of a political "nuclear bomb." Deep down, Ford must realize that his Conservatives were put in power simply because people no longer liked the Liberals: Wynne's government was tired and out of ideas. Fair enough. But the voters weren't actually voting in favour of anything Ford's Conservatives offered, because there was no platform to examine. Voters were simply in the mood for change. Ford hopes that, if Trudeau intervenes, he can successfully battle a "bully" federal government which is trying to tell Ontario what to do. He hopes it will make him look good and Trudeau, an outsider from Quebec, look bad. It's a terrible gamble on Ford's part and it will only ruin any chance of federal-provincial co-operation. And it might work.

But, as with Harris and Eves, Ford would be well advised to remember that these chaos-induced successes of his are to be short-lived and will backfire on him.

Chaos, like karma, is a bitch.